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March 5, 2026
Summary and Analysis of the “Stop Unemployment Fraud Act”
Background This week, senior House and Senate Members are introducing legislation designed to prevent a repeat of runaway fraud and abuse that afflicted unemployment benefit programs during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors of the legislation are Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-PA), a senior member of the House Ways and Means Committee, and Sen. James Lankford (R-OK),…
March 5, 2026
States Can Strengthen Families and Fight Welfare Dependence and Fraud
For six decades, Washington has waged a War on Poverty with ever‑increasing sums of money. According to the House Budget Committee, federal means‑tested welfare spending now exceeds $1 trillion a year, with more than $12 trillion projected over the next decade. When counted as income for recipients, all that spending has reduced poverty, even as it has left growing…
February 26, 2026
Young Men’s Earnings over the Long Run – An Update
Let me start with the chart: Median pre-tax earnings of men ages 25-29 rose 24 percent ($10,800) from 1973 to 2024, and median post-tax compensation rose 40 percent ($15,500). The gains from 1989 to 2024 were 42 percent ($16,300) and 46 percent ($17,000). A few years ago (2022), I wrote a report arguing that while…
February 25, 2026
What Can We Learn from Guaranteed Basic Income Pilots in the United States? Evidence on Employment Effects
Abstract Between 2017 and 2025, at least 122 pilots across 33 states and the District of Columbia evaluated a guaranteed basic income (GBI), allocating $481 million in GBI payments to more than 40,000 recipients. We summarize the methodologies and findings of these studies, with a focus on employment effects. Among the 30 pilots that are…
February 25, 2026
On the Federal Deficit, Picking the Low-Hanging Fruit Won’t Be Enough
If you look closely, you can see some progress on cutting federal spending. At least that’s the conclusion of the respected Kim Strassel, writing recently in the Wall Street Journal before the Congressional Budget Office released its broad budget and economic forecast for the coming decade. Strassel compared the past two fiscal years and found that “overall discretionary spending is down by $1 billion.”…
February 13, 2026
What Harvard’s Raj Chetty Overlooks About Upward Mobility
The Harvard economist Raj Chetty, justly famous for his studies of the factors that enable upward mobility in America, is back with a new analysis that has attracted wide attention. Thanks to access to the individual tax records of a million former public housing residents whom his Opportunity Insights team tracked, he determined that a move from “the projects” to a…
February 10, 2026
Trump Houses Are a Good Idea—If
Facing public concern about high home purchase prices, the Trump Administration is said to be considering the idea of “Trump Houses,” starter homes to be built privately but with some sort of federal backing to encourage the private investors. Potential buyers would start off as renters and make the transition to owners after three years….
February 9, 2026
Medicaid’s Multiple Roles
Matt Weidinger’s December 2025 commentary argued persuasively that complexity has become an impediment to rational reform of the nation’s safety net. By approving scores of new programs across several decades, Congress and the states have assembled such an unwieldy and uncoordinated anti-poverty portfolio that policymakers have difficulty fully grasping what it contains much less what…
February 3, 2026
Thankfully, Hunger in the US Remains Rare
Hunger in the United States, as most people understand it, is thankfully rare. According to the most recent Household Food Security in the United States report, approximately 5 percent of US households had “very low food security” at some point in 2024. This measure, defined as reduced food intake due to a lack of money,…
February 2, 2026
Poverty and Dependency in the United States, 1939–2023
Abstract We compare trends in absolute poverty before (1939–1963) and after (1963–2023) the War on Poverty was declared. Our primary methodological contribution is to create a post-tax post-transfer income measure using the 1940, 1950 and 1960 Decennial Censuses through imputations of taxes and transfers as well as certain forms of market income including perquisites (Collins…