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June 5, 2025
The One Thing Both Parties Agree On: More Deficits and Debt
The House of Representatives recently passed by a single vote Republicans’ “One Big Beautiful Bill” that reflects President Donald Trump’s tax and spending agenda, and GOP senators are now working to put their own stamp on the bill. Given that partisan pedigree, you would think this bill had little in common with legislation that Democrats crafted during the…
May 7, 2025
Did ‘China Shock’ Throw Millions of Americans Out of Work?
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that “3.7 million Americans lost their jobs” due to the “China Shock”—the increased import competition occurring after China was granted membership in the World Trade Organization. He cites research by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, linking to two of their papers. But it appears…
April 28, 2025
You Autor Know
Along with many other controversial issues in 2025, Americans are at odds over the merits of tariffs. Underlying this debate is a more specific one—the impact of increased trade with China over the past 25 years on American manufacturing employment. Advocates of tariffs hope they will bring back blue-collar jobs, to which they ascribe special…
April 24, 2025
Musk’s High-Tech Polygamy Is a Dead End
Elon Musk told a conference in Saudi Arabia last year that his listeners “should view the birthrate as the single biggest problem [we] need to solve. If you don’t make new humans, there’s no humanity, and all the policies in the world don’t matter.” In this way, he spotlighted his commitment to the pronatalist cause—the idea that…
April 9, 2025
Trump’s Tariff Formula Is Still Wrong. Maybe That’s Why No One Will Admit They Created It.
Last Friday, we showed that the Trump Administration’s tariff formula contained an error that made its calculated tariffs up to four times too large. The entire premise of the administration’s approach—that a country’s tariff and non-tariff trade barriers can be derived solely from the bilateral trade balance with that country, and that the goal of…
April 8, 2025
Discussing President Trump’s tariff formula miscalculation: Corinth on CNN News Central
Kevin Corinth, Deputy Director of the Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility, discusses President Trump’s tariff formula alongside AEI’s Stan Veuger on CNN News Central.
April 7, 2025
Discussing President Trump’s tariff formula: Corinth on ‘Bloomberg Insight’
Kevin Corinth, Deputy Director of the Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility, discusses how President Trump’s formula to calculate tariffs was incorrect on Bloomberg TV’s ‘Bloomberg Insight.’
April 4, 2025
President Trump’s Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It’s Also Based on an Error.
President Trump on Wednesday announced tariffs on practically every foreign country (and some non-countries), ranging from a 10 percent minimum all the way up to 50 percent. The economic fallout has been dramatic, with the stock market losing nine percent of its value (based on the S&P 500 index at the time of writing) and…
April 3, 2025
Trump’s Tariffs Are a Historic Tax Hike
If implemented, the tariffs announced yesterday by President Trump would constitute the largest tax increase since the 1968 levies to fund the Vietnam War. The details will matter, but my back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the tariffs — which are taxes on imported goods — could be as large as 2 percent of annual GDP. This tax increase…
March 13, 2025
Two Charts Show Why a Trade War Over Fentanyl Doesn’t Make Sense
Following a month-long pause, President Trump last week reimposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, only to pause many of them again two days later. Different reasons have been offered by the Trump Administration for the tariffs, but in recent days the President’s advisers have honed in on one reason in particular: Fentanyl is being shipped across our borders with…