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January 6, 2026
The Middle Class Is Shrinking Because of a Booming Upper-Middle Class
Abstract Populists on both the political left and right routinely claim that the middle class has been hollowed out. These claims, to the extent they are based on evidence, rely on a relative definition of the middle class, such that if income doubles for every family, the middle class does not grow. Using an absolute…
December 9, 2025
Has Marriage Fallen Because Young Adults Can’t Afford Homes?
If you’ve been on social media in the past ten years, you’ve surely seen it: The lamentation that it’s impossible for young adults in America today to buy a home of their own. It’s a complaint as likely to be offered by populist conservatives as by Taylor Lorenz-style progressives. The new right’s emphasis on family…
December 1, 2025
Apocalypse Not
Now we’re getting somewhere! Thanks to the person who posts on X.com using @MTSInsights, I know where Michael Green got his inflated cost estimates, which I critiqued in my last post. (Green, you may recall, claimed that $140,000 is the new poverty line and the “cost of existing.”) His figures come from the Living Wage Calculator (LWC), a project of…
November 30, 2025
Our Economy Is Not Stagnant
Both sides of the political aisle are misleadingly bleak about the state of the American worker. A national Pew survey conducted in April of this year found that 56 percent of Americans believe that “life in America today” is worse than it was “50 years ago for people like you.” In a separate April survey, the exact same…
November 27, 2025
The Real Math of Survival?
Earlier today (much earlier…) I posted a critique of the new viral post by Michael W. Green claiming that families with less than $140,000 in income should be considered to be in poverty. That critique focused on a truly absurd revision of how we measure poverty that has the effect of making us look dramatically poorer when in fact…
November 26, 2025
How Not to Redefine Poverty
I tried to let it go. Someone mentioned the essay to me on Monday, when it was a Substack post. I tweeted out some quick thoughts as to why no one should take it seriously, pointing out the glaring problem that I’ll walk through below. I tried to get back to my other work (a…
October 15, 2025
Don’t Choose Your Own Adventure: Understanding Middle-Class Earnings Trends
What should we make of earnings trends in the United States? People can differ in their opinions about whether some reported trend is impressive or cause for concern, of course. However, you might think that it’s at least straightforward to determine what the relevant trend is and how to measure it. But that turns out…
August 8, 2025
Revise the Messenger
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported out the latest employment numbers on Friday, August 1, finding that nonfarm establishments added just 73,000 jobs in July compared with June. That was a disappointing number, but the news was worse below the headline. The combined number of jobs the economy added in May and June—previously reported by BLS…
June 17, 2025
Work Requirements For Medicaid Could Increase Income and Reduce Poverty
New Congressional Budget Office figures last week indicate that the reconciliation bill passed by the House and under review in the Senate would reduce annual income among the poorest households by $1,600. The next day, the Urban Institute its own analyses, finding that the bill would throw an additional 1.4 million people into poverty. Much of the…
May 7, 2025
Did ‘China Shock’ Throw Millions of Americans Out of Work?
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that “3.7 million Americans lost their jobs” due to the “China Shock”—the increased import competition occurring after China was granted membership in the World Trade Organization. He cites research by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, linking to two of their papers. But it appears…