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June 25, 2025
Yes, there’s still a shared American story. If we’re to live in freedom, we need to embrace and defend it.
A year and a half ago, I wrote an essay in The Social Breakdown arguing the need for a revived civic national story and the existential consequences for the country not having one. Even more so today, protecting our liberal democratic experiment requires that Americans set aside their partisan or policy differences. But we need…
June 24, 2025
Putting the CBO’s Estimates of SNAP’s Work Requirement into Context
Recent proposals to expand the work requirement in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have been almost universally portrayed as a punitive effort to push low-income recipients off the program. Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that over 3 million people will leave SNAP due to the work requirement expansions. However, it is important…
May 20, 2025
The share of Medicaid recipients in compliance with the House bill’s community engagement requirement
Last week, the House Committee on Energy and Commerce approved several changes to Medicaid as part of the reconciliation bill. One major change is the imposition of community engagement requirements for non-disabled working age adults without dependent children. This change would take effect in January 2029, although some House members have argued for moving up…
May 19, 2025
The Case for Shifting More Welfare Costs to States
As part of Congressional Republicans’ drive to craft “one big beautiful bill” reflecting Donald Trump’s tax and spending agenda, the House Agriculture committee on May 14 approved several proposals that would reduce federal spending by shifting some current federal welfare costs to states. At the same time, dissatisfied conservative members have called for more federal…
April 25, 2025
A baby bonus is the wrong response to declining fertility
The Trump Administration is reportedly considering ways to reverse declining fertility in the United States, most notably a $5,000 “baby bonus” for any mother who gives birth. The administration is right to worry about the fertility rate, which has been on a steady decline since 2007 to the point where the number of new babies…
April 23, 2025
In Case of Emergency, Open Block Grant: Part 2
Congress’s efforts to produce “one big, beautiful bill” that reflects President Donald Trump’s tax and spending priorities is about to kick into high gear as the House and Senate turn to crafting their respective reconciliation bills. Yet one key source of contention between House and Senate Republicans remains the amount of mandatory savings included in…
April 23, 2025
In Case of Emergency, Open Block Grant: Part 1
Congress’s efforts to produce “one big, beautiful bill” that reflects President Donald Trump’s tax and spending priorities is about to kick into high gear as the House and Senate turn to crafting their respective reconciliation bills. Yet one key source of contention between House and Senate Republicans remains the amount of mandatory savings included in…
April 15, 2025
Is There Really Pent-Up Demand for Ten Times the Manufacturing Jobs We Have?
Data analysis is hard. Admittedly, the consequences of getting it wrong are less severe than a botched surgery. But you still want to be very careful. It’s all too easy for a misinterpretation of the facts to harm important policy debates. For an example, look no further than the debate over the past couple of…
March 4, 2025
A Model for Effective and Reasonable Work Requirements
As Congress considers instituting work requirements to maintain eligibility for Medicaid, it is illustrative to examine an effective model for how such requirements have been implemented in New York City to maintain eligibility for the federal cash welfare program Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF). Proposals to mandate work requirements as a condition of receiving…
February 24, 2025
What Do You Call an Automatic Stabilizer that Doesn’t Shrink When Conditions Improve? The Biden Food Stamps Blowout
Last month the Wall Street Journal editorial board (“The Great Biden Welfare Blowout”) reviewed the staggering number of welfare recipients in key programs at the close of the Biden administration: Some 84.6 million individuals are enrolled in Medicaid—about a quarter of the population—roughly the same as when Mr. Biden entered office. About 42.6 million Americans…