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July 26, 2024
Two Cheers for Shrinking Black-White Opportunity Gaps
The latest in a series of important reports on social mobility by the research group Opportunity Insights is out, and it’s another conversation-changer. Across a variety of outcomes in adulthood and adolescence, the gap between black Americans who grew up with low-income parents and their white counterparts has narrowed over time. This news is certainly…
February 27, 2024
Options for Improving the Child Tax Credit Provisions in H.R. 7024, the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024
H.R. 7024, the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024, passed the House on January 31, 2024 and now faces an uncertain fate in the Senate. The bill is intended to offer something for both Republicans and Democrats—business tax cuts and an expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC). But this bargain—which…
February 8, 2024
Another Flawed Analysis Shows that Single Mothers are Highly Sensitive to Changes in Work Incentives
Tuesday, I published a critique of a paper by Council of Economic Advisers senior economist Jacob Bastian related to the debate over expanding the child tax credit (CTC). In that paper, Bastian sought to discredit analyses claiming that single mothers are highly sensitive to work incentives. Specifically, he argued that the “labor supply elasticities” used…
January 31, 2024
The Wyden-Smith Child Tax Credit and Work: Responding to Critics
The Wyden-Smith tax bill under consideration in the House has rekindled a debate about the Child Tax Credit (CTC) and work incentives. We, along with our colleagues, Angela Rachidi and Matt Weidinger, recently released an analysis of the incentives built into one overlooked feature of the CTC reforms proposed in the bill—the so-called “look-back” provision….
January 30, 2024
How Sensitive Are Single Mothers’ Work Decisions to a Change in Incentives? Correcting Misperceptions of the Evidence
Let’s start with a table. (With apologies to our mobile audience…) Evidence on Extensive Margin Employment Elasticities for Single Mothers Reported Revised Consistent w/ 0.75? Notes Reviews or Based on Reviews Corinth et al. (2021, rev 2022) 0.75 — p. 22; based on midpoint of McClelland and Mok (2012), p. 5 (below); unpublished…
December 11, 2023
Has Inequality Made Americans Poorer than Bulgarians, Russians, and Filipinos?
A recent column by John Burn-Murdoch in the Financial Times presents statistics side-by-side showing that “the wealthiest Americans are the richest people in the developed world, but America’s poorest are also the most likely to go hungry.” The chart buttressing the latter part of that conclusion shows that in over 12 percent of American households,…
October 5, 2023
Do 60 Percent Of American Workers Have Insecure Jobs?
American Compass has a new survey out in which it finds, among other results, that “only 40 percent of workers have secure jobs.” This is the latest attempt by the outfit to portray the American economy as in dire need of “rebuilding.” The report summarizing the findings is titled, “Labor Market Not Yet Working for…
September 15, 2023
Putting This Year’s Poverty Numbers in Context
On Tuesday, the Census Bureau released its latest income and poverty estimates covering calendar year 2022, including two assessments of poverty in America. One, called the Official Poverty Measure (OPM), focuses on earnings and cash-like government benefits, such as Social Security, unemployment, and welfare checks. A second, known as the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), also…
September 6, 2023
Working from Home Has Increased More Modestly Than Many Believe
The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic created urgent demand for “high frequency” national statistics. Prior to the pandemic, many economic indicators were available only on an annual basis (or even less frequently). One important exception was the unemployment rate, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates every month. The unemployment rate jumped more than threefold—from…