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July 30, 2025

It’s Not Surprising That No-Strings Attached Cash Didn’t Help Kids

A recent study put to the test an idea that has become increasingly influential over the past decade: To help kids thrive, one of the best things you can do is to give their parents cash with no strings attached. This idea was the impetus in 2021 for the one-year replacement of the existing Child Tax Credit—which…

July 18, 2025

The Misunderstood Gains of Modern America

An unfortunately popular myth peddled by populists on both the left and right is that America has been in steady decline since the 1970s. To hear them tell it, the country has become a rigged game: stagnant wages, hollowed-out jobs, and lives made harder by rapacious, elite-driven capitalism. But a more honest accounting of the…

April 9, 2025

Trump’s Tariff Formula Is Still Wrong. Maybe That’s Why No One Will Admit They Created It.

Last Friday, we showed that the Trump Administration’s tariff formula contained an error that made its calculated tariffs up to four times too large. The entire premise of the administration’s approach—that a country’s tariff and non-tariff trade barriers can be derived solely from the bilateral trade balance with that country, and that the goal of…

April 4, 2025

President Trump’s Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It’s Also Based on an Error.

President Trump on Wednesday announced tariffs on practically every foreign country (and some non-countries), ranging from a 10 percent minimum all the way up to 50 percent. The economic fallout has been dramatic, with the stock market losing nine percent of its value (based on the S&P 500 index at the time of writing) and…

March 13, 2025

Two Charts Show Why a Trade War Over Fentanyl Doesn’t Make Sense

Following a month-long pause, President Trump last week reimposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, only to pause many of them again two days later. Different reasons have been offered by the Trump Administration for the tariffs, but in recent days the President’s advisers have honed in on one reason in particular: Fentanyl is being shipped across our borders with…

January 7, 2025

More Skilled Immigrants for More Economic Growth

The recent appointment of venture capitalist Sriram Krishnan, an Elon Musk ally, to the incoming Trump administration sparked controversy on X (formerly Twitter) among MAGA supporters. The conflict arose from Krishnan’s past support for removing green card country caps for skilled immigrants, a position aligned with Silicon Valley but controversial among some Trump supporters. Amid this debate,…

December 5, 2024

More High-Skill Immigration Is Popular. Let’s Act on That

This might be one of the most underappreciated facts of American public opinion: As controversial as the subject of immigration is, high-skill immigration isn’t controversial at all. A Pew Research Center poll in September found 71 percent of Donald Trump supporters and 87 percent of Kamala Harris supporters favored admitting more high-skilled immigrants. Likewise, a survey last summer from…

November 4, 2024

Again, Tariffs Didn’t Make American Manufacturing Great

Nationalist/populist conservatives, including the Republican nominee, claim that US economic history supports their views of trade protectionism. Donald Trump says “tariff” is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” and that America “in the 1890s was probably the wealthiest it ever was” because of its tariff system. First, per capita GDP is, conservatively, seven times higher…

April 17, 2024

Fiscal Sanity Please, Senators

The Wyden-Smith tax bill, which combines an expanded child tax credit (CTC) with a variety of business tax breaks, has been in limbo in the Senate for the past three months. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has promised to bring up the bill if there’s enough support, but so far, these votes have not been forthcoming…

April 10, 2024

The Political Landmines Buried in the Latest Jobs Report

CNN on Friday dubbed the latest monthly jobs report a “blowout,” pointing to 303,000 net new jobs created in March. President Joe Biden immediately claimed credit, saying the report “marks a milestone in America’s comeback,” as it indicates a total of “15 million jobs created since I took office.” Meanwhile, the latest data confirm that most…