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November 30, 2025
Our Economy Is Not Stagnant
Both sides of the political aisle are misleadingly bleak about the state of the American worker. A national Pew survey conducted in April of this year found that 56 percent of Americans believe that “life in America today” is worse than it was “50 years ago for people like you.” In a separate April survey, the exact same…
November 26, 2025
How Not to Redefine Poverty
I tried to let it go. Someone mentioned the essay to me on Monday, when it was a Substack post. I tweeted out some quick thoughts as to why no one should take it seriously, pointing out the glaring problem that I’ll walk through below. I tried to get back to my other work (a…
October 15, 2025
Don’t Choose Your Own Adventure: Understanding Middle-Class Earnings Trends
What should we make of earnings trends in the United States? People can differ in their opinions about whether some reported trend is impressive or cause for concern, of course. However, you might think that it’s at least straightforward to determine what the relevant trend is and how to measure it. But that turns out…
August 8, 2025
Revise the Messenger
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported out the latest employment numbers on Friday, August 1, finding that nonfarm establishments added just 73,000 jobs in July compared with June. That was a disappointing number, but the news was worse below the headline. The combined number of jobs the economy added in May and June—previously reported by BLS…
June 17, 2025
Work Requirements For Medicaid Could Increase Income and Reduce Poverty
New Congressional Budget Office figures last week indicate that the reconciliation bill passed by the House and under review in the Senate would reduce annual income among the poorest households by $1,600. The next day, the Urban Institute its own analyses, finding that the bill would throw an additional 1.4 million people into poverty. Much of the…
May 7, 2025
Did ‘China Shock’ Throw Millions of Americans Out of Work?
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that “3.7 million Americans lost their jobs” due to the “China Shock”—the increased import competition occurring after China was granted membership in the World Trade Organization. He cites research by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, linking to two of their papers. But it appears…
March 27, 2025
The Looming Debt Crisis, the Trump Tax Cuts, and Medicaid
Let’s start with a chart to understand the dire fiscal situation we are in as a nation. Figure 1. Federal Debt Held by the Public as a Share of Gross Domestic Product, 1940-2054 You’re looking at how sizeable federal debt has been and will be relative to gross domestic product (GDP). From 1960 to 2008, the federal debt held by…
February 20, 2025
The American Dream Is Not a Coin Flip, and Wages Have Not Stagnated
In my last column, I showed that Americans’ assessments of the economy have tracked the official unemployment rate well over the long run. That is important because it suggests that both public opinion and objective measures indicate that the labor market is historically strong (though accelerating inflation during and after the COVID-19 pandemic has caused these…
January 16, 2025
Should We Believe the Economic Data or Americans’ “Lyin’” Eyes? The Answer Is Yes.
Many Americans are convinced the economy is ailing and that life is financially tougher today than a decade—or a generation—ago. Social media posts wax nostalgic for a long-lost era when all single breadwinners allegedly could afford a home and two cars for a family of four. Everyone seemingly knows someone who did everything they were…
January 7, 2025
Tax Policy Should Prioritize Shoring Up the Family
During the Biden years, tax policy related to the family revolved around the child tax credit (CTC). Attempts to expand the credit to make it easier for two-parent families to have kids and rely on a sole breadwinner were thwarted by objections that a child allowance would also promote single-parent families in which no one…