October 12, 2023
The GOP Should Be the Party of Parents
Republicans looking to expand their party’s coalition have a problem. The public identifies them above all with Donald Trump, who is decidedly unpopular. Voters who can possibly stand Trump (and even some who can’t) are already Republicans. And when Republicans talk about something other than Trump, it is generally the Democrats. So swing voters know that the…
October 12, 2023
Now the Administration Is Legislating on Welfare, Too
Last week the Department of Health and Human Services issued a proposed rule related to the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. TANF is the cash welfare block grant Congress created in the 1996 welfare reform law, which was central to that legislation’s efforts to promote more work and less welfare receipt. For a capital already familiar with…
October 12, 2023
Blue States Are Getting More Federal Money Than They Should
The late New York senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan long complained — and commissioned data — about New York’s status as a “donor state,” for sending more in tax dollars to Washington than it received in return in the form of grants. This was always a misunderstanding of the virtues of the U.S. being a vast free-trade…
October 12, 2023
Blue-State Benefits: How Federal Grants Fail to Consider Population Shift
Abstract The federal government annually awards hundreds of billions of dollars in grants to states. In this report, I examine funding for the largest federal grant programs for 2020–22, focusing on grants-in-aid that do not fully adjust for population change. For states losing population, I calculate “avoided reductions,” the difference between the grants a state…
October 11, 2023
CHANGING THE OFFICIAL POVERTY MEASURE WOULD HELP RICH STATES AND HURT POOR STATES
Earlier this year, a National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report recommended elevating the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) to the “nation’s headline poverty statistic,” and noted that the Office of Management and Budget could christen the SPM as the new official poverty measure. This action would require no Congressional input. The two interactive maps below report…
October 5, 2023
Changing the Official Poverty Measure Would Help Rich States and Hurt Poor States
In this post I discuss the policy implications of declaring the Supplemental Poverty Measure the new official measure, an action that could be taken unilaterally by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget without any input from Congress. First, I report how eligibility for major means-tested programs would substantially rise in higher income…
September 29, 2023
Solutions to Reduce Government Improper Payments Involving Unemployment Benefits
OverviewThe coronavirus pandemic tested the nation’s unemployment benefits system more than any prior recession. Not only did far more individuals file claims for weekly benefits than ever before, but lockdowns and mass layoffs concentrated those record claims starting in March 2020, creating an unprecedented surge in demand for benefits that quickly rose to an apparent…
September 29, 2023
Up To $135 Billion In Pandemic Unemployment Fraud – And Still Counting
Last week, the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office (GAO) added a startling new figure to the ever-growing estimates of abuse inflicted on unemployment benefits during the pandemic, finding that “between $100 billion and $135 billion” was lost to fraud. As a dismal Washington Post headline summarized, “Fraudsters may have stolen $1 of every $7 in covid jobless aid.” Unfortunately, this disastrous episode…
September 26, 2023
The Gas Tax Should Not Be Eliminated
Last week, Republican Presidential candidate and former Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) released an economic plan that would eliminate the federal excise taxes on gas and diesel. Her goal is to “help families struggling with record high gas prices.” A laudable goal, but it would be poor policy. Under current law, the federal government levies a $0.184 per…
September 23, 2023
Did Pandemic Unemployment Benefits Increase Unemployment? Evidence from Early State-level Expirations
Abstract During the 2021 pandemic year, the generosity of Unemployment Insurance benefits was expanded (Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation [FPUC]) and eligibility for benefits was broadened (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance [PUA]). These two programs were set to expire in September 2021. In June 2021, 18 states exited both FPUC and PUA and three states exited FPUC (but…