July 24, 2025
Divorce In Decline: About 40% Of Today’s Marriages Will End In Divorce
We’ve all heard the mantra that half of all marriages end in divorce. This idea often gets peddled as a way of dissuading young adults from tying the knot. If you only have 50/50 odds of making it, is marriage really worth the risk? Much of this caution surrounding marriage comes from those who’ve personally…
July 18, 2025
The Misunderstood Gains of Modern America
An unfortunately popular myth peddled by populists on both the left and right is that America has been in steady decline since the 1970s. To hear them tell it, the country has become a rigged game: stagnant wages, hollowed-out jobs, and lives made harder by rapacious, elite-driven capitalism. But a more honest accounting of the…
July 2, 2025
Have You Heard the Good News?
A quick look at some recent headlines shows that we have problems. The nation sharply and angrily divided along political lines. Rioters in the streets of Los Angeles. A destructive trade war. Debt and deficits at unsustainable levels. Those are real and serious problems (and not close to an exhaustive list). But the tenor of…
June 18, 2025
The (Non) Effect of Tariffs on Manufacturing Employment
This paper is a chapter in the volume The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment, published by The Center for Economic and Policy Research. Introduction President Trump has stated many goals to justify his trade war. He has argued that tariffs on imports produce leverage that the US can use to reduce…
June 5, 2025
The One Thing Both Parties Agree On: More Deficits and Debt
The House of Representatives recently passed by a single vote Republicans’ “One Big Beautiful Bill” that reflects President Donald Trump’s tax and spending agenda, and GOP senators are now working to put their own stamp on the bill. Given that partisan pedigree, you would think this bill had little in common with legislation that Democrats crafted during the…
May 7, 2025
Did ‘China Shock’ Throw Millions of Americans Out of Work?
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that “3.7 million Americans lost their jobs” due to the “China Shock”—the increased import competition occurring after China was granted membership in the World Trade Organization. He cites research by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, linking to two of their papers. But it appears…
April 28, 2025
You Autor Know
Along with many other controversial issues in 2025, Americans are at odds over the merits of tariffs. Underlying this debate is a more specific one—the impact of increased trade with China over the past 25 years on American manufacturing employment. Advocates of tariffs hope they will bring back blue-collar jobs, to which they ascribe special…
April 24, 2025
Musk’s High-Tech Polygamy Is a Dead End
Elon Musk told a conference in Saudi Arabia last year that his listeners “should view the birthrate as the single biggest problem [we] need to solve. If you don’t make new humans, there’s no humanity, and all the policies in the world don’t matter.” In this way, he spotlighted his commitment to the pronatalist cause—the idea that…
April 9, 2025
Trump’s Tariff Formula Is Still Wrong. Maybe That’s Why No One Will Admit They Created It.
Last Friday, we showed that the Trump Administration’s tariff formula contained an error that made its calculated tariffs up to four times too large. The entire premise of the administration’s approach—that a country’s tariff and non-tariff trade barriers can be derived solely from the bilateral trade balance with that country, and that the goal of…
April 8, 2025
Discussing President Trump’s tariff formula miscalculation: Corinth on CNN News Central
Kevin Corinth, Deputy Director of the Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility, discusses President Trump’s tariff formula alongside AEI’s Stan Veuger on CNN News Central.