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May 7, 2025
Did ‘China Shock’ Throw Millions of Americans Out of Work?
…uses a measure of total employment from Scott Winship, “America Is Still Working,” updated to 2024. (See end note 5 from that paper.) For 1939-2024, the manufacturing employment measure is from…
April 28, 2025
You Autor Know
Along with many other controversial issues in 2025, Americans are at odds over the merits of tariffs. Underlying this debate is a more specific one—the impact of increased trade with…
April 15, 2025
Is There Really Pent-Up Demand for Ten Times the Manufacturing Jobs We Have?
Data analysis is hard. Admittedly, the consequences of getting it wrong are less severe than a botched surgery. But you still want to be very careful. It’s all too easy…
March 27, 2025
The Looming Debt Crisis, the Trump Tax Cuts, and Medicaid
Let’s start with a chart to understand the dire fiscal situation we are in as a nation. Figure 1. Federal Debt Held by the Public as a Share of Gross…
February 20, 2025
The American Dream Is Not a Coin Flip, and Wages Have Not Stagnated
…Hell, Robert Manduca, Jimmy Narang, “The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940.” Replication files available at https://opportunityinsights.org/data/?geographic_level=0&topic=0&paper_id=546#resource-listing. MACPI is from Scott Winship, “Introducing the More Accurate Consumer…
February 18, 2025
Family-Friendly Policies for the 119th Congress
Key Points American birth rates have hit record lows, but Americans still say they want children. Family formation seems unattainable to many parents. There is no single federal policy that…
January 16, 2025
Should We Believe the Economic Data or Americans’ “Lyin’” Eyes? The Answer Is Yes.
…living standards have changed over the long run. Scott Winship is a senior fellow and the director of the Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility at the American Enterprise Institute…
January 7, 2025
Tax Policy Should Prioritize Shoring Up the Family
During the Biden years, tax policy related to the family revolved around the child tax credit (CTC). Attempts to expand the credit to make it easier for two-parent families to…
December 20, 2024
Fixing Inflation, Right-Sizing the Federal Government
Thirty years ago next month, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan testified before a joint session of the House and Senate Budget Committees with talk of deficit reduction in the…
November 7, 2024
Introducing the “More Accurate Consumer Price Index”
Abstract Particularly since the 1990s, federal statistical agencies have worked to improve the ability of various price indexes to measure changes in the cost of living. However, in recent years,…