Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders released an ad this week about “Brad,” a fictional character who “has turned relaxing into a full-time profession,” that is, snacking in front of the television and playing video games. In the ad, Governor Sanders suggests that it is unfair to ask hardworking taxpayers to subsidize his choice not to work, touting her welfare-to-work requirement as the solution. The final scene depicts Brad proudly dressing for work.
The new ad, based on the Medicaid work requirement Governor Sanders is implementing in Arkansas, has triggered controversy, with some questioning whether it reflects reality. It does.
The ad’s loudest critics object to the depiction of Brad as a white man. Some believe a woman and especially a black person would have been a more realistic choice for the ad’s protagonist. In reality, there are far more white people than black people among the population subject to the state’s Medicaid work requirement, and while women outnumber men the difference is modest. Working-age men without disabilities or dependent children, with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty line, are able to enroll in Medicaid in Arkansas as a result of eligibility expansions enacted by the Affordable Care Act.
Based on my calculations using the 2024 American Community Survey (ACS), Table 1 reports the share of Arkansas Medicaid recipients potentially subject to the work requirement who are a member of a given sex and racial/ethnic group. The ACS does not provide sufficient detail to model all of the provisions affecting coverage by the Medicaid work requirement, but its questions on Medicaid coverage, income, program receipt and other information allow for a reasonable approximation.
According to Table 1, non-Hispanic white (hereafter “white”) people comprise 61% of those estimated to be potentially subject to Arkansas’ work requirement, with women somewhat more common than men. White men in particular comprise 27%, second only to white women at 34%. There are almost three times as many white men subject to the work requirement as non-Hispanic black (hereafter “black”) women, apparently the demographic some had preferred Governor Sanders to depict.
The results are similar when focusing only on the individuals potentially subject to Arkansas’ Medicaid work requirement who are not already working. Among the nonworking subset, I estimate that 26% are white men while 12% are black women.
The white majority in Table 1 is consistent with the overall population of Arkansas, two-thirds of whom are white. White men comprise 33% of the total population in Arkansas between the ages of 19 and 64, based on the same 2024 ACS data and age range used to estimate the values in Table 1. This is only modestly higher than their 27% share of the population subject to the work requirement.
Without adjusting for other characteristics, my estimates based on the 2024 ACS indicate that working-age white men in Arkansas have a lower likelihood of being subject to the Medicaid work requirement than white women, black men, black women, and Hispanic women, and a higher likelihood than Hispanic men. But for an ad on the importance of Medicaid work requirements for improving recipient outcomes at a lower cost to taxpayers, it is reasonable to focus on populations that comprise a large share of those affected.
Some critics also appeared to object to how the person in the ad was depicted, sitting in front of a television and playing video games. I previously estimated that nationally, childless working-age Medicaid recipients who are not disabled, not working and not in school spend an average of 4.2 hours per day watching television and playing video games. They spend 6.1 hours per day when considering the broader category of all socializing, relaxing and leisure activities. That works out to around 43 hours per week, or slightly more than a 40-hour per week full-time job. The ad’s claim that Brad turned “relaxing into a full-time profession” has empirical support.
The ad touting Medicaid work requirements in Arkansas should not be offensive. It portrays a realistic example of who will be subject to the work requirement and the ways in which many of those who are not working spend a substantial portion of their time. And with its happy ending of Brad proudly dressing for work, it sends a helpful message that takes a stand against the growing detachment of men from the workforce.
