April 25, 2025
A baby bonus is the wrong response to declining fertility
The Trump Administration is reportedly considering ways to reverse declining fertility in the United States, most notably a $5,000 “baby bonus” for any mother who gives birth. The administration is right to worry about the fertility rate, which has been on a steady decline since 2007 to the point where the number of new babies…
April 23, 2025
In Case of Emergency, Open Block Grant: Part 2
Congress’s efforts to produce “one big, beautiful bill” that reflects President Donald Trump’s tax and spending priorities is about to kick into high gear as the House and Senate turn to crafting their respective reconciliation bills. Yet one key source of contention between House and Senate Republicans remains the amount of mandatory savings included in…
April 23, 2025
In Case of Emergency, Open Block Grant: Part 1
Congress’s efforts to produce “one big, beautiful bill” that reflects President Donald Trump’s tax and spending priorities is about to kick into high gear as the House and Senate turn to crafting their respective reconciliation bills. Yet one key source of contention between House and Senate Republicans remains the amount of mandatory savings included in…
April 15, 2025
Is There Really Pent-Up Demand for Ten Times the Manufacturing Jobs We Have?
Data analysis is hard. Admittedly, the consequences of getting it wrong are less severe than a botched surgery. But you still want to be very careful. It’s all too easy for a misinterpretation of the facts to harm important policy debates. For an example, look no further than the debate over the past couple of…
March 4, 2025
A Model for Effective and Reasonable Work Requirements
As Congress considers instituting work requirements to maintain eligibility for Medicaid, it is illustrative to examine an effective model for how such requirements have been implemented in New York City to maintain eligibility for the federal cash welfare program Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF). Proposals to mandate work requirements as a condition of receiving…
February 24, 2025
What Do You Call an Automatic Stabilizer that Doesn’t Shrink When Conditions Improve? The Biden Food Stamps Blowout
Last month the Wall Street Journal editorial board (“The Great Biden Welfare Blowout”) reviewed the staggering number of welfare recipients in key programs at the close of the Biden administration: Some 84.6 million individuals are enrolled in Medicaid—about a quarter of the population—roughly the same as when Mr. Biden entered office. About 42.6 million Americans…
January 21, 2025
President Trump’s USDA Should Fix Food Stamp Work Requirement Waivers
As President Donald Trump begins his second term, he and his administration will be exploring ways to improve government efficiency and economic outcomes for low-income Americans. One such policy—a 2019 regulation governing states’ use of waivers to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program’s (SNAP) work requirement—does just that. Although the regulation was never implemented after being…
December 30, 2024
What’s behind the unprecedented rise in homelessness, and how can we reverse it?
The annual United States homeless population estimates for 2024 were released last week. Homelessness grew by a record 18% annually in 2024, following a then record 12% increase in 2023. As shown in the figure below, the recent spike in homelessness is unprecedented. Going back 17 years since national homeless counts began, homelessness never before…
October 30, 2024
A SNAP Reform Framework Focused on the Future
No matter the outcome of next week’s election, we can be certain that the new President and Congress will confront urgent policy and legislative challenges. One priority issue for the new Congress will be renewing the Farm Bill. True to its name, the Farm Bill authorizes a wide range of programs to support farmers and…
September 27, 2024
Food Insecurity Increases Driven by Middle- and High-Income Households
Last month, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released their annual report detailing the prevalence of food insecurity in the United States. The report found that 13.5 percent of all US households are food insecure, or, in plain language, have “limited or uncertain access to adequate food”—a significant increase from the year prior. Just a…