All Research
Working Paper
Saved by Medicaid: New Evidence on Health Insurance and Mortality from the Universe of Low-Income Adults
Abstract We examine the causal effect of health insurance on mortality using the universe of…
Working Paper
How Large Would SNAP Be? Simulating the Size of SNAP Based on Changes to the Unemployment Rate
Abstract The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is a means-tested transfer program that is available…
AEI Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility Working Paper
An Evaluation of Cost Saving Reforms of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
AbstractCongress is considering ways to reduce spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) by…
Working Paper
The Targeting of Place-Based Policies: The New Markets Tax Credit Versus Opportunity Zones
Abstract For a place-based policy to succeed, it must target the right areas—typically those with…
Working Paper
Coverage, Counter-cyclicality and Targeting of Work Requirement Waivers in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program limits benefits for able-bodied adults without dependents unless they work at least 20 hours per week, but states have historically been able to waive this requirement in areas deemed to have weak labor markets. A new county-level dataset of waivers from 1997 to 2023 shows that waivers expanded substantially over time and were somewhat responsive to unemployment changes but were frequently granted in counties with relatively low unemployment. Simulations indicate that specific waiver rules—particularly the 20 percent unemployment rule and the ability to group counties—significantly increased waiver coverage and weakened targeting to areas with the weakest labor markets.
Working Paper
Poverty, Hardship, and Government Transfers
Abstract We examine how the well-being of those with few resources changed, amidst economic disruption…
Working Paper
Race, Ethnicity, and Measurement Error
Abstract Large literatures have analyzed racial and ethnic disparities in economic outcomes and access to…
Working Paper
Employment and Labor Supply Responses to the Child Tax Credit Expansion: Theory and Evidence
AbstractThe 2021 Child Tax Credit (CTC) expansion increased government benefits to families, andespecially to families…
Working Paper
Critiquing Bastian (2022, 2023, 2024, and forthcoming): On Child Tax Credit Reform and the Sensitivity of Single Mothers to Work Incentives
In 2021, Congress passed and President Biden signed a major, but temporary, reform to the Child Tax Credit (CTC). Among other reforms to the credit, the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) made it available to non-workers on the same basis as workers. Attempts to make this reform permanent foundered, in part, due to opposition from policymakers who worried that the new credit would lead workers to withdraw from the labor force and otherwise discourage work. These concerns drew strength from a working paper by a team of economists at the University of Chicago, published that fall, that predicted that making the ARPA CTC permanent would lead nearly 1.5 million parents to leave employment, most of them lower-income single mothers.
Working Paper
The Work Incentive and Employment Effects of Eliminating the Child Tax Credit’s Annual Income Requirement
Proposed 2024 child tax credit reforms would let families calculate eligibility using either current-year or prior-year income, significantly weakening the credit’s annual work requirement. The analysis estimates that this change would encourage some nonworking parents to enter employment while causing more consistently employed parents to stop working in some years. On net, the policy is projected to reduce employment by an average of 153,000 parents per year while also creating incentives for year-to-year fluctuations in work and hours.
Working Paper
Child Support Policy: Areas of Emerging Agreement and Ongoing Debate
This paper will be delivered at the Association for Public Policy Analysis & Management 2023 Fall…
Working Paper
The Effects of Elevating the Supplemental Poverty Measure on Government Program Eligibility and Spending
Abstract Without Congressional action, the recently released National Academy of Sciences report, “An Updated Measure…