January 21, 2026
Funding the Administration of Unemployment Benefits: Overview and Reforms to Improve Efficiency and Program Integrity
Executive Summary: The COVID-19 pandemic exposed significant flaws in the nation’s unemployment insurance (UI) system, which resulted in the improper payment of at least $191 billion—and potentially upwards of $400 billion—in taxpayer funds. The direct causes of those extensive losses included the poor design of temporary federal benefit programs, which opened the door to abuse,…
January 6, 2026
The Middle Class Is Shrinking Because of a Booming Upper-Middle Class
Abstract Populists on both the political left and right routinely claim that the middle class has been hollowed out. These claims, to the extent they are based on evidence, rely on a relative definition of the middle class, such that if income doubles for every family, the middle class does not grow. Using an absolute…
December 2, 2025
Stranded by the Safety Net: How to Fix the Benefit Cliff Problem
Key Points Executive Summary The US safety net should help low-income families meet their immediate needs while supporting their long-term upward mobility. Yet certain program rules—especially those that create “benefit cliffs”—often do the opposite by discouraging work and trapping families in poverty. At its core, a benefit cliff occurs when government benefits decrease too abruptly…
August 27, 2025
In Pursuit: Marriage, Motherhood, And Women’s Well-Being
Marriage and fertility rates have reached all-time lows in the U.S. in recent years, as fewer people marry or have children. These trends are likely to continue in the future. In 2023, only 72% of 18-year-old women in the U.S. said they were likely to have children, down from 85% in the late 2000s.1 Though…
July 30, 2025
The Expertise Upheaval
How Generative AI’s Impact on Learning Curves Will Reshape the Workplace Generative AI (GenAI) is set to reshape the workforce, redefining career pathways and talent development. However, despite public anxieties about mass displacement, GenAI’s biggest impacts won’t be on the number of jobs so much as on the level of expertise required to do them….
July 16, 2025
An Analysis of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s Effect on Student Loans
Key Points Introduction At the beginning of July, President Donald Trump signed into law the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB), a comprehensive package of reforms to taxes and government spending.1 While the package touches on myriad policy areas, it includes a comprehensive set of reforms to the federal student loan program. These represent some of…
June 26, 2025
Does Building Light-Touch Density Housing Lower Single-Family Home Values? Evidence from Seattle, WA and Charlotte, NC
Summary: Opponents of Light-touch Density (LTD) infill argue that it will lead to outright home price declines or, at the very least, slower home price appreciation (HPA). However, evidence from Charlotte and Seattle shows that the construction of LTD housing—such as duplexes and townhomes—does not adversely impact HPA of single-family detached (SFD) homes in the…
June 25, 2025
De-Skilling the Knowledge Economy
Key Points Introduction As David Veldran and I examined in our 2024 report, The Age of Uncertainty—and Opportunity: Work in the Age of AI, forecasts of how artificial intelligence will affect jobs and skills are remarkably uneven and often contradictory.1 This is less a matter of poor methodologies or lack of investigation than it is…
June 24, 2025
Public Housing and Rental Subsidies
Since the 1930s, the federal government has subsidized local housing projects aimed at uplifting the poor. The specific policies have evolved, but the theory has been that federal aid is needed because the states cannot solve their own housing problems and private markets fail to invest in affordable housing. Federal housing efforts are led by…
June 18, 2025
The (Non) Effect of Tariffs on Manufacturing Employment
This paper is a chapter in the volume The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment, published by The Center for Economic and Policy Research. Introduction President Trump has stated many goals to justify his trade war. He has argued that tariffs on imports produce leverage that the US can use to reduce…