November 7, 2024
Introducing the “More Accurate Consumer Price Index”
Abstract Particularly since the 1990s, federal statistical agencies have worked to improve the ability ofvarious…
August 29, 2024
The Distribution of Social Capital across Individuals and its Relationship to Income
Abstract There have been several attempts to measure social capital—the value inhering in relationships—at an…
May 16, 2024
Critiquing Bastian (2022, 2023, 2024, and forthcoming): On Child Tax Credit Reform and the Sensitivity of Single Mothers to Work Incentives
In 2021, Congress passed and President Biden signed a major, but temporary, reform to the Child Tax Credit (CTC). Among other reforms to the credit, the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) made it available to non-workers on the same basis as workers. Attempts to make this reform permanent foundered, in part, due to opposition from policymakers who worried that the new credit would lead workers to withdraw from the labor force and otherwise discourage work. These concerns drew strength from a working paper by a team of economists at the University of Chicago, published that fall, that predicted that making the ARPA CTC permanent would lead nearly 1.5 million parents to leave employment, most of them lower-income single mothers.
January 19, 2024
The Work Incentive and Employment Effects of Eliminating the Child Tax Credit’s Annual Income Requirement
Proposed 2024 child tax credit reforms would let families calculate eligibility using either current-year or prior-year income, significantly weakening the credit’s annual work requirement. The analysis estimates that this change would encourage some nonworking parents to enter employment while causing more consistently employed parents to stop working in some years. On net, the policy is projected to reduce employment by an average of 153,000 parents per year while also creating incentives for year-to-year fluctuations in work and hours.
December 1, 2022
Was Rising Inequality Behind Falling Absolute Mobility? Reassessing Chetty et al. (2017)
In 2017, a widely publicized paper by a research team led by Harvard economist Raj…