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May 7, 2025

Did ‘China Shock’ Throw Millions of Americans Out of Work?

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that “3.7 million Americans lost their jobs” due to the “China Shock”—the increased import competition occurring after China was granted membership…

April 28, 2025

You Autor Know

Along with many other controversial issues in 2025, Americans are at odds over the merits of tariffs. Underlying this debate is a more specific one—the impact of increased trade with…

April 15, 2025

Is There Really Pent-Up Demand for Ten Times the Manufacturing Jobs We Have?

Data analysis is hard. Admittedly, the consequences of getting it wrong are less severe than a botched surgery. But you still want to be very careful. It’s all too easy…

March 27, 2025

The Looming Debt Crisis, the Trump Tax Cuts, and Medicaid

Let’s start with a chart to understand the dire fiscal situation we are in as a nation. Figure 1. Federal Debt Held by the Public as a Share of Gross…

March 24, 2025

Keeping Medicaid Sustainable While Prioritizing the Vulnerable

The unsustainability of future federal budget deficits necessitates reduced entitlement spending. Finding savings from Medicaid will likely be a central part of this year’s budget debate. What are the costs…

February 20, 2025

The American Dream Is Not a Coin Flip, and Wages Have Not Stagnated

In my last column, I showed that Americans’ assessments of the economy have tracked the official unemployment rate well over the long run. That is important because it suggests that both…

February 18, 2025

Family-Friendly Policies for the 119th Congress

Key Points American birth rates have hit record lows, but Americans still say they want children. Family formation seems unattainable to many parents. There is no single federal policy that…

January 16, 2025

Should We Believe the Economic Data or Americans’ “Lyin’” Eyes? The Answer Is Yes.

Many Americans are convinced the economy is ailing and that life is financially tougher today than a decade—or a generation—ago. Social media posts wax nostalgic for a long-lost era when…

January 7, 2025

Tax Policy Should Prioritize Shoring Up the Family

During the Biden years, tax policy related to the family revolved around the child tax credit (CTC). Attempts to expand the credit to make it easier for two-parent families to…

December 20, 2024

Fixing Inflation, Right-Sizing the Federal Government

Thirty years ago next month, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan testified before a joint session of the House and Senate Budget Committees with talk of deficit reduction in the…