Some pro-family conservatives are rallying around Rep. Blake Moore’s (R-UT) Family First Act. Relative to a clean extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the bill would cost an additional $575 billion over the next decade in order to increase the generosity of tax breaks targeted at families with children. The bill would lead over half of tax filers with children to have zero or negative federal income tax liability. Married parents with two children could receive a net refund from the federal government until their income exceeds $94,000, well beyond the median US household income of $81,000.

The Family First Act proposes several reforms to the tax code relative to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions currently in effect. It would boost the Child Tax Credit to $4,200 for children aged 0 to 5 and $3,000 for children aged 6 to 17, compared to the current $2,000 maximum for all eligible children. It would also phase in the credit more quickly, allowing families with earnings of $20,000 to receive the full amount as a refundable credit. The Earned Income Tax Credit would be scaled back and the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit eliminated. Head of household filing status, which modestly reduces the tax burden on single parent families, would be eliminated as well.

Although the Family First Act is framed as tax relief, roughly half of its benefits would be in the form of increased federal spending. The Family First Act increases benefits for tax filers with children primarily by expanding the Child Tax Credit and making it fully refundable. As a refundable credit, tax filers can receive the credit even if they do not have federal income tax liability. The extent to which the credit exceeds income tax liability constitutes federal spending, not a reduction in taxes.

Figure 1 depicts the total effect of the Family First Act for a married couple filing jointly with two children. For any given income it shows this filer’s federal income tax liability under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (black line) and under the Family First Act (red line). The gap between the black line and the red line indicates the change in taxes owed. This filer comes out ahead under the Family First Act by a margin of up to $3,200. The lower tax liability across the income range shown explains the $575 billion ten-year cost of the policy relative to a clean extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Figure 1. Federal income tax liability (after credits) for married couple with two children, Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and Family First Act, 2026

Notably, the Family First Act would expand the range of incomes over which tax filers receive a net refund from the federal government, represented by a negative federal income tax liability in the figure. The threshold for owing taxes for this joint filer with two children would rise from $68,000 to $94,000, well beyond the median household income of about $81,000 in 2023.

Additionally, more tax filers would receive a larger net refund. For example, the range of incomes over which the family would receive at least a $10,000 refundable credit would double in size from a range of $21,000 to $35,000, to a range of $15,000 to $45,000.

Table 1 estimates how the Family First Act would impact the number of tax filers with children that have positive income tax liabilities. Under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, 25.2 million tax units with children pay federal income taxes while 23.9 million either pay no federal income tax or receive a net refund. The Family First Act would lead 2.1 million tax units to switch from paying income taxes to receiving a net refund. As a result, 53 percent of tax units with children would either pay zero income tax or receive a net refund from the federal government.

Table 1: Effect of Family First Act on tax liabilities and number of tax filers with positive and negative federal income tax liabilities: tax filers with children only, 2026

	Tax Cuts and Jobs Act	Family First Act	Change
Tax filers with positive tax liability
Tax liabilities	$1,115.2 billion	$1,079.0 billion	–$36.2 billion
Number of tax filers	25.2 million	23.1 million	–2.1 million
Tax filers with zero or negative tax liability
Tax liabilities	–$106.0 billion	–$138.2 billion	–$32.2 billion
Number of tax filers	23.9 million	26.1 million	2.1 million
All tax filers
Tax liabilities	$1,009.2 billion	$940.9 billion	–$68.3 billion
Number of tax filers	49.2 million	49.2 million	0.0 million

_{Notes: Table corresponds only to tax filers with children, separated by whether their federal income tax liability is positive, or zero or negative. Tax liability refers to total federal income tax liability after all deductions and credits. Reported values are for the 2026 tax year, under two potential scenarios. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act assumes a clean extension of 2025 tax law into 2026. The Family First Act assumes an extension of 2025 tax law into 2026, except the provisions of the Family First Act are assumed to take effect.
Source: Calculations based on tax simulation conducted by Kyle Pomerleau.}

The Family First Act would reduce tax liabilities among tax filers who pay federal income taxes by $36.2 billion, and increase spending to filers who do not pay taxes by $32.2 billion. Thus, spending increases represent 47 percent of the $68 billion annual cost of the bill’s provisions that affect families.

When layered on top of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the Family First Act would be costly and expand net income tax refunds to over half of all families, including some families in the top half of the income distribution. At a time when lawmakers are seeking ways to reduce the federal deficit, they should consider whether these changes are prudent.