May 7, 2025
Did ‘China Shock’ Throw Millions of Americans Out of Work?
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that “3.7 million Americans lost their jobs” due to the “China Shock”—the increased import competition occurring after China was granted membership in the World Trade Organization. He cites research by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, linking to two of their papers. But it appears…
May 6, 2025
What DOGE Flagged as Unemployment Fraud Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg—Most of Which Will Never Be Recovered
The Department of Government Efficiency recently spotlighted unemployment benefits paid to tens of thousands of individuals whose reported birthdates indicated they were either children or dead. One claimant’s birthdate even suggested he or she hadn’t been born yet. As Elon Musk said, “Your tax dollars were going to pay fraudulent unemployment claims for fake people born in the future!” The $382 million DOGE identified that taxpayers lost on the associated improper payments is real money. But it’s also just…
April 30, 2025
The Student Loan Bubble Is about to Pop
At the outset of the covid-19 pandemic, federal student-loan borrowers won what appeared to be a reprieve. That five-year pause on payments and interest accumulation is now shaping up to be a curse in disguise. Last week, the Trump administration drew criticism for announcing that the Education Department would resume involuntary collections next month. But the squeeze…
April 28, 2025
You Autor Know
Along with many other controversial issues in 2025, Americans are at odds over the merits of tariffs. Underlying this debate is a more specific one—the impact of increased trade with China over the past 25 years on American manufacturing employment. Advocates of tariffs hope they will bring back blue-collar jobs, to which they ascribe special…
April 28, 2025
House Republicans’ Proposed Repayment Plan Fixes Vexing Student Loan Problem
Congressional Republicans are undertaking a massive budget reconciliation effort involving significant reforms to the federal student loan system. House Republicans introduced their proposal on Monday, which would sweep away the maze of nearly a dozen different loan repayment plans and create just two: a standard repayment plan and an entirely new income-driven repayment (IDR) plan. In addition…
April 25, 2025
Trump Administration Announces Plan to Get Borrowers Paying Student Loans Again
The U.S. Department of Education announced on Monday that it would resume involuntary collections of defaulted federal student loans on May 5. The announcement means that borrowers who have loans in default could see their tax refunds seized or wages garnished. While many borrowers and advocacy organizations will oppose the move, resuming collections is necessary to incentivize loan repayment….
April 25, 2025
A baby bonus is the wrong response to declining fertility
The Trump Administration is reportedly considering ways to reverse declining fertility in the United States, most notably a $5,000 “baby bonus” for any mother who gives birth. The administration is right to worry about the fertility rate, which has been on a steady decline since 2007 to the point where the number of new babies…
April 24, 2025
It’s About Time: Bring Back Those Student Loan Collections
This week, the Department of Education announced that on May 5 it will begin collecting on defaulted student loans. This will be the first time since March 2020 that borrowers who have either chosen not to or been unable to make their student loan payments will once again face significant financial consequences for their delinquency. Borrowers…
April 23, 2025
In Case of Emergency, Open Block Grant: Part 2
Congress’s efforts to produce “one big, beautiful bill” that reflects President Donald Trump’s tax and spending priorities is about to kick into high gear as the House and Senate turn to crafting their respective reconciliation bills. Yet one key source of contention between House and Senate Republicans remains the amount of mandatory savings included in…
April 23, 2025
In Case of Emergency, Open Block Grant: Part 1
Congress’s efforts to produce “one big, beautiful bill” that reflects President Donald Trump’s tax and spending priorities is about to kick into high gear as the House and Senate turn to crafting their respective reconciliation bills. Yet one key source of contention between House and Senate Republicans remains the amount of mandatory savings included in…