Gad Levanon, chief economist at The Burning Glass Institute, analyzed data relating to the share of undocumented workers in a wide variety of trades and lower-wage, lower-skilled occupations, as well as higher-skilled jobs in construction and manufacturing. Bear in mind that many of these occupations are related to housing, the largest contributor to our recent bout of high inflation, and agriculture/food processing, which feeds into food prices. Actual deportations on the scale president-elect Trump has proposed would worsen the labor outlook for these occupations and deepen the cost problem considerably.

Source: The Burning Glass Institute

There’s no quick-fix for replacing these workers. The current US prime-age labor force participation rate is 83.5 percent, and the rate for prime-age men (who dominate many of these occupations) is 89.5 percent. Training new workers, assuming eligible, willing candidates step forward, will take time. These are also strenuous occupations that often take a significant physical toll, which means they are best suited to the younger workers who have been the focus of intense employer competition over the past three years. An abrupt withdrawal of undocumented workers will impose real burdens on businesses and consumers. The new administration would be well advised to start working on legal worker visas to avoid what could be some very disruptive and costly economic results.