Blue states are better for families. That is what many academics contend. 

In their classic book “Red Families v. Blue Families: Legal Polarization and the Creation of Culture,” law professors Naomi Cahn and June Carbone argue that blue states have the liberal values and policies they believe make for strong and stable families. 

Scholars like them point to universal pre-K, free school lunches and paid family leave that lend direct state support to the care of kids. Moreover, blue states’ commitment to higher education, an egalitarian family life and delayed family formation are pluses they believe stabilize family life in America.

But is the blue state family model working outside the halls of academia in the real world?

There are signs the answer is “no.” 

A recent Institute for Family Studies study found parents are much more likely to move out of blue states and into red ones than vice versa. From 2021-2022, roughly 180,000 more families left blue states for red states than vice versa. 

Another data point that disregards state boundaries is that a majority of married voters, as well as parents, voted red, for President Donald Trump, in the 2024 election.

Beyond these mobility and voting trends, where are Americans most likely to have babies? 

The answer again is red states. 

According to the latest Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, the highest total fertility rates in 2023 were found in red states like South Dakota (2.01), Texas (1.81) and Utah (1.80). By contrast, blue states such as Vermont (1.30), Oregon (1.35) and California (1.48) lag behind in childbearing. In fact, the top 10 states for fertility in 2023 were red states, and the bottom 10 were blue states.

The red state advantage regarding fertility can be chalked up to several cultural, policy and economic factors. 

Economically, red states typically offer more affordable housing, hotter job markets and lower taxes, all of which appeal to young and middle-aged men and women aiming to start or grow their families. 

Culturally, red states are more likely to prioritize marriage and family life and offer parents more educational choices, which are pluses to many family-minded Americans. 

Many red states, especially ones where religious faith is strong (like Utah), prioritize the value of getting married and focusing on your family rather than putting most of your eggs in the baskets of work and self. The family-friendly culture of these states also seems more likely to turn the hearts and minds of young adults to marriage. 

These financial and cultural features of red state life end up being more important than the suite of pro-family policies of their blue counterparts.

Despite what the data show, promoting a family-friendly environment is not a partisan contest as even red states are struggling more today than they once did on the family formation front. 

Most red states have fertility rates below the replacement rate of 2.1 babies per woman. Even in conservative states like Utah, both the “Midas mindset” of putting off marriage and family and the falling financial and social fortunes of young men have made the path to marriage less appealing and attainable.

To remedy the falling prospects of family life across the country, state policymakers need to take three steps. 

First, they should promote marriage (one of the biggest predictors of family formation) in public school curricula and public service announcements aimed at young adults. 

Second, they need to make their states more male friendly by boosting single-sex education, making public schools more attentive to boys’ educational needs and increasing support for vocational education. This will make young men in their states more marriageable and attractive as potential family men. 

Third, policymakers should devote at least 10% of the billions of dollars they receive for Temporary Assistance to Needy Families to help lower-income families get and stay married by addressing the marriage penalties they face in today’s welfare system.

The bottom line is that policymakers, educators and civic leaders in both blue and red states have work to do to create a culture and a family-friendly economy for their young adults, one that would steer more states to a sustainable rate of family formation — about 2.1 babies per woman. 

But if current fertility trends are any indication, Democratic states will have to work much harder to revive the fortunes of family life in their borders. That’s because trends in family migration, voting and fertility suggest the blue state family model is perceived as more family unfriendly, today, to Americans interested in starting, growing or raising a family.

Brad Wilcox is the Future of Freedom Fellow at the Institute for Family Studies and a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Michael Pugh, a research associate at the American Enterprise Institute, contributed to this article.

This story appears in the March 2025 issue of Deseret Magazine. Learn more about how to subscribe.