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Housing Finance Watch (Week 35 & 36, 2023)

American Enterprise Institute

September 12, 2023

PDF to full report

Key takeaways:

  • The median purchase rate rose 1/8 ppts. over the past week to 7 1/8%.
  • Mortgage News Daily reported a daily avg. 30-year rate of 7.3% on September 11th.
  • Purchase volume was down 39% from the same period in 2019, and down 30% YTD compared to 2019.
  • Y-o-y HPA was 3.5% in July 2023 and is projected to increase to 4% for August, September, and the first three weeks of October 2023.
  • Despite the subdued rate of purchase activity and historically high rates, y-o-y HPA has begun to accelerate. This is because buyers are well-qualified and highly motivated by a historically tight supply. Cooling, yet still strong job numbers, low levels of foreclosures in most areas, work from home, and continued home price arbitrage opportunities provide further support for robust HPA.