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May 18, 2025

Saved by Medicaid: New Evidence on Health Insurance and Mortality from the Universe of Low-Income Adults

Abstract We examine the causal effect of health insurance on mortality using the universe of low-income adults, a dataset of 37 million individuals identified by linking the 2010 Census to administrative tax data. Our methodology leverages state-level variation in the timing and adoption of Medicaid expansions under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and earlier waivers…