All Research
Op-Ed
How Much AI-Driven Productivity Growth Do We Want?
As AI advances, societies must consider how to strike a balance between the disruption caused by rapid productivity growth and its many benefits, including rising incomes and living standards. Fortunately,…
Op-Ed
Everything You Thought About the US Labor Market Is Wrong
…to restrain an increase in stock prices, prevent GDP growth from accelerating, or induce a worrying increase in the unemployment rate. Despite this, the Fed cut its policy rate at…
Journal Publication
The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes on Hours Worked: Evidence Using a Partially Pre-Committed Analysis Plan
…as Clemens and Strain’s (forthcoming) analysis of employment, we can directly compare the resulting employment and hours elasticities. We find that these elasticities were very similar in our empirical context….
Op-Ed
Trump’s Tariffs Are a Historic Tax Hike
If implemented, the tariffs announced yesterday by President Trump would constitute the largest tax increase since the 1968 levies to fund the Vietnam War. The details will matter, but my back-of-the-envelope calculation…
Working Paper
Menu Adjustment in Response to the Minimum Wage: A Return to the New Jersey-Pennsylvania Border
Abstract This paper studies how output prices are affected by increases in the minimum wage. To the best of our knowledge, we provide the first examination of how the prices…
Op-Ed
Industrial Policy and Deficits: Dark Clouds for Democratic Capitalism
Democratic capitalism is a system that marries liberal democracy and free-market capitalism. This union creates tensions, and requires balancing competing aims. But this tension is healthy, not destructive — provided…
Op-Ed
Inflation Reduction Act Offers a General Lesson against Industrial Policy
With President Trump’s stunning return to power, Congress has the opportunity in 2025 to enact additional business tax cuts. One of their specific goals should be to make “full expensing”…
Book
Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
Summary Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) promise to improve productivity significantly, but there are many questions about how AI could affect jobs and workers. Recent technical innovations have driven the…
Op-Ed
A Trump Boom?
Donald Trump’s stunning and decisive return to power makes it official: We live in the Age of Trump. The 2008 global financial crisis was a turning point in history, and…
Op-Ed
US Tariffs Will Not Bring Back Jobs from China
Although protectionism has become a rare point of bipartisan consensus in America, the public debate about it gets some basic facts wrong. Yes, trade is disruptive, but the US has…
Op-Ed
Harris and Trump Are Equally Silent on the Expanding US Debt
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris seem to agree that one of the nation’s most important challenges should remain unaddressed — a problem that has been slowly eroding the foundations of…
Op-Ed
Harris’ Tax Plans Would Reduce Long-Term Prosperity. Trump’s Proposals Might Be Even Worse.
AEI Scholar and Director of Economic Policy Studies Michael R. Strain contributed to the Dispatch’s Symposium titled Economic Policy Experts: Doom, Thy Name Is Populism, as a group of experts outlined…