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August 1, 2025
Trump’s tariff deadline: Six experts weigh in
Trump’s trade deals have been surprising in their one-sidedness, in favor of the United States. The president’s supporters have painted this in a positive light. But it likely reflects two…
July 2, 2025
Have You Heard the Good News?
A quick look at some recent headlines shows that we have problems. The nation sharply and angrily divided along political lines. Rioters in the streets of Los Angeles. A destructive…
June 18, 2025
The (Non) Effect of Tariffs on Manufacturing Employment
This paper is a chapter in the volume The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment, published by The Center for Economic and Policy Research. Introduction President Trump…
April 3, 2025
Trump’s Tariffs Are a Historic Tax Hike
If implemented, the tariffs announced yesterday by President Trump would constitute the largest tax increase since the 1968 levies to fund the Vietnam War. The details will matter, but my back-of-the-envelope calculation…
January 8, 2025
Menu Adjustment in Response to the Minimum Wage: A Return to the New Jersey-Pennsylvania Border
Abstract This paper studies how output prices are affected by increases in the minimum wage. To the best of our knowledge, we provide the first examination of how the prices…
December 17, 2024
Industrial Policy and Deficits: Dark Clouds for Democratic Capitalism
Democratic capitalism is a system that marries liberal democracy and free-market capitalism. This union creates tensions, and requires balancing competing aims. But this tension is healthy, not destructive — provided…
December 5, 2024
Inflation Reduction Act Offers a General Lesson against Industrial Policy
With President Trump’s stunning return to power, Congress has the opportunity in 2025 to enact additional business tax cuts. One of their specific goals should be to make “full expensing”…
November 21, 2024
Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
Summary Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) promise to improve productivity significantly, but there are many questions about how AI could affect jobs and workers. Recent technical innovations have driven the…
November 19, 2024
A Trump Boom?
Donald Trump’s stunning and decisive return to power makes it official: We live in the Age of Trump. The 2008 global financial crisis was a turning point in history, and…
October 21, 2024
US Tariffs Will Not Bring Back Jobs from China
Although protectionism has become a rare point of bipartisan consensus in America, the public debate about it gets some basic facts wrong. Yes, trade is disruptive, but the US has…