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After Decades of Competitive Admissions, Getting into College Has Finally Become Easier

AEIdeas

September 11, 2024

High school seniors fretting over whether they’ll receive a college acceptance letter can sleep a little easier. College admissions rates, which had been declining for decades, are now on the upswing. Indeed, most colleges now accept a greater share of their applicants today than they did twenty years ago.

Until recently, rising admissions rates were far from the norm. Among the roughly 1,400 public and private nonprofit colleges that grant mostly bachelor’s degrees or higher, the median institution reduced its admissions rate by six percentage points between 2002 and 2012. Admissions rates remained depressed throughout most of the 2010s. A narrative that it’s becoming near-impossible to gain acceptance to a top college took hold.

But that narrative is overdue for a correction. Admissions rates had started to tick back up by 2019, but the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated things. By 2022, the median college had increased its admissions rate by 1.4 percentage points since 2002—meaning it’s slightly easier to get into college today than it was around the turn of the century.

To be sure, not every college has followed the trend. It’s indeed becoming harder to land entry to most Ivy League campuses: Brown University, for instance, reduced its admissions rate from 17 percent in 2002 to just 5 percent in 2022. But many selective colleges moved in the opposite direction. Over the same period, California Polytechnic State University raised its admissions rate from 19 percent to 30 percent.

For every Brown, there’s a Cal Poly. Among public and private nonprofit colleges that grant bachelor’s degrees or higher (I exclude for-profit and two-year schools from the analysis because they are mostly open-enrollment), 35 percent reduced their admissions rates by more than 5 percentage points between 2002 and 2022. But another 44 percent of those colleges increased admissions rates by more than 5 percentage points.

Though elite schools with single-digit admissions rates dominate headlines, it’s important to remember that most colleges accept a majority of applicants. In 2022, just 13 percent of nonprofit four-year colleges rejected more than half of their applicants. On the other hand, an equal proportion of these schools—13 percent—reported an open enrollment policy.

Declining demand for higher education is one reason for rising admissions rates. Demographic change means the ranks of college-age students in America are growing at a slower rate and will start shrinking soon. The pandemic also led many students to delay college entry, and some wound up never attending at all. Some students are looking at alternatives to four-year college, such as vocational schools.

While college enrollment surged during the 2010s, giving schools more leeway to reject applicants, the pendulum has now swung back. Colleges are competing for a smaller pool of potential students, and as a result, those who do apply enjoy higher odds of admission.

But better admissions odds aren’t the only benefit for students. While college tuition used to be one of the fastest-rising prices throughout the whole economy, that has changed. On average, published tuition rates are now falling in real terms. Financial aid reduces the cost burden even further. Higher admissions rates mean colleges must compete more fiercely to attract students, and for many that means slashing tuition.

Policymakers should heed this lesson: a more competitive market in higher education yields benefits for students by raising acceptance rates and lowering costs. While the recent rise in admissions rates is welcome, it may not last forever.

Ensuring that college admissions remain friendly to students requires policy change. The higher education market suffers from significant barriers to entry, which hamper the launch of new schools that could offer a better education at a lower cost. Removing these barriers could ensure that today’s student-friendly environment becomes the norm. Colleges should compete for students, rather than the other way around.