Business Insider wrote in early 2023 that food banks are “bracing themselves for an onslaught” of increased demand. Later that year, Bloomberg reported that “lines stretch down the block at food banks.” And two months ago, CNN noted that the “share of people turning to hunger relief programs remains higher than it was prior to the pandemic.” These headlines imply that many more Americans are turning to charitable food for their families. If true, it raises concerns about the economic security of US households and the government’s ability to help them. However, further investigation shows that these articles fail to put the issue in full context. In fact, based on data collected by the government, the share of Americans relying on charitable food assistance has held remarkably constant over the past several years—even among disadvantaged populations.
Data on charitable food assistance can be hard to find, and even harder to interpret. Understandably, it is difficult for mostly volunteer-run food pantries to track how many people come through their doors, let alone how many unique households they see and the quantities of food they distribute. Yet many reporters rely on food bank administrators’ reports of how much demand has increased. The Business Insider piece, for example, notes that the Food Bank of New York City had experienced an 80 percent increase in visits to their network food banks, and that food pantries involved with the Central California Food Bank saw a declining number of visitors in 2021, but then a significant increase in 2022. These data are useful, but they also raise a lot of questions. Are these unique visitors? How much food assistance is being provided, and how frequently? And are changes in the supply of charitable food driving some of these numbers?
To better understand how demand for charitable food has changed for all US households over the past several years, we rely on two nationally representative surveys conducted by the US Census Bureau. The first is the Household Pulse Survey (HPS). The HPS is an ongoing survey that has been conducted every few weeks since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. The HPS asks respondents, “during the last 7 days, did you or anyone in your household get free groceries from a food pantry, food bank, church, or other place that helps with free food?” to which respondents can answer yes or no (or can choose not to answer). The second survey we used is the Food Security Supplement of the Current Population Survey (FSS). The FSS is the official source of statistics on food insecurity, and has been conducted annually since the late 1990s. The FSS asks a nearly identical question, except they ask about a families’ reliance on charitable food assistance over the past monthrather than the past seven days.
Although the HPS and FSS are both administered by the Census Bureau and ask nearly identical questions, results from the HPS can differ substantially from the FSS. For example, a 2021 report by one of us (Rachidi, with co-author Scott Winship) demonstrated the problems associated with comparing responses to the HPS with the FSS on food insufficiency. They found that the food insufficiency rate in the HPS was more than triple that of the food insufficiency rate in the FSS, even though the wording of the questions were the same. They attributed the differences to various administrative factors—such as screening questions, screener question placement, sample population, and response rates.[1]
These differences emerge when comparing rates of charitable food receipt between the HPS and the FSS, as well. In Figure 1, we show that the rates of charitable food receipt in the HPS is more than double that of the FSS. In December 2020, the share of households reporting that they relied on charitable food assistance was 9.6 percent according to the HPS, but just 4.2 percent according to the FSS. Similarly, in December 2021, the HPS reported that 6.4 percent of households used charitable food assistance in the past seven days, while that was true of just 2.6 percent of households per month in the FSS.[2]
Though these surveys produce different levels of charitable food receipt, they each show nearly identical trends. (It is important to note, however, that FSS’ charitable food assistance question in 2022 is not directly comparable to prior years, thus the dotted lines in Figures 1 and 2). After peaking in the months following the pandemic, the share of Americans relying on charitable food assistance according to the HPS has held remarkably steady over the past two years. According to the HPS, 6.2 percent of households relied on charitable food assistance in October 2021. By May 2024, that share had increased to 6.8 percent. Nonetheless, this modest uptick (if it isn’t statistical noise) is a far cry from the increases reported by food bank operators and in the media.
In Figure 2, we show trends in charitable food assistance rates for various economically disadvantaged groups.
Interestingly, Figure 2 shows that the share of households relying on charitable food assistance does not substantially differ between the FSS and the HPS—except for single parents. According to the HPS, 13.2 percent of single-parent households relied on charitable food assistance in December 2021, compared to just 4.7 percent of single parents in the FSS.
But more importantly, each group shows the same general trend in charitable food assistance receipt. Although there is significant month-to-month variation in HPS, charitable food receipt has held mostly constant since the middle of 2021 for each disadvantaged group. That is, in October 2021, 14.8 percent of those who reported food insufficiency (i.e. not having enough or the kinds of food needed) relied on food banks acccording to the HPS. By May 2024, that rate had fallen slightly to 11.8 percent. Only the elderly have experienced a modest uptick in charitable food receipt according to the HPS, increasing from 3 to 6 percent from October 2021 to May 2024. However, for nearly all groups that we analyzed, the share of Americans reporting receipt of charitable food assistance had held steady since the middle of 2021.
So, how do we explain the differences in food bank reports versus the survey data? It is possible that food bank operators’ reported increase is due to repeat visitors from the same households. Repeat visitors to food pantries within the time frame asked on the survey would not show up multiple times in the survey data. Another possible explanation is that the survey data does not capture changes in the supply of charitable food. For example, the availability of food at individual food pantries might have changed over time, or the availability of food pantries or open hours might have changed. This could cause certain food bank operators to experience increased demand, but would not appear in the survey data.
Overall, there remains some uncertainty over changes in the receipt of charitable food among US households. However, when you rely on the most comprehensive set of survey data, demand for charitable food has changed very little since 2021. It is possible that certain food banks have experienced an increased number of repeat visitors or that certain food banks have not been able to keep pace with demand due to changes in the supply of charitable food, but the data suggest that the share of people relying on charitable food assistance is the same today as it was two years ago.
[1] The Census Bureau notes its longer-running, more established surveys (such as the FSS) will likely produce more accurate results than the HPS, which they note is part of the “agency’s Experimental Data Series..[and] may not meet some of the Census Bureau’s statistical quality standards.”
[2] Note that statistics from the FSS reflect the share of households receiving charitable food assistance in the last month, which is not directly comparable to the HPS estimates about the last week.