Abstract

Between 2017 and 2025, at least 122 pilots across 33 states and the District of Columbia evaluated a guaranteed basic income (GBI), allocating $481 million in GBI payments to more than 40,000 recipients. We summarize the methodologies and findings of these studies, with a focus on employment effects. Among the 30 pilots that are randomized controlled trials with published employment outcomes, the mean effect of a GBI is an increase of 0.8 percentage
points on the share employed. Among the four such pilots with a treatment group of at least 500 participants, which together comprise 55 percent of all treatment group participants, the mean effect on employment is -3.2 percentage points, or a mean income elasticity of -0.18 that is consistent with estimates from the academic literature. We do not find strong patterns related to the timing of the pilots or most demographic characteristics of the study participants. We suggest caution in relying on evidence from the pilots to inform future policy debates regarding the effect of a GBI on employment: Most of the pilots had small sample sizes and substantial attrition. Even the highest quality pilots were conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic or soon thereafter, and may not generalize to a permanent, universal, nationwide GBI, implemented during current or future economic and policy conditions.