Abstract

Between 2017 and 2025, at least 122 pilots across 33 states and the District of Columbia evaluated the effects of a guaranteed basic income (GBI), allocating $481 million in GBI payments to more than 40,000 recipients. We summarize these studies’ methodologies and findings, focusing on their employment effects. Among the 30 GBI pilots that are randomized controlled trials with published employment outcomes, employment increased by a mean of 0.8 percentage points. Among the four such pilots with a treatment group of at least 500 participants, which together comprise 55 percent of all treatment-group participants, the mean effect on employment is −3.2 percentage points, or a mean income elasticity of −0.18, which is consistent with estimates from the academic literature. We do not find strong patterns related to the pilots’ timing or most of the participants’ demographic characteristics. We suggest caution in relying on evidence from these pilots to inform future policy debates regarding a GBI’s employment effect: Most of the pilots had small sample sizes and substantial attrition. Even the highest-quality pilots were conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic or soon thereafter, and they might not generalize to a permanent, universal, nationwide GBI implemented during current or future economic and policy conditions.