The ongoing federal government shutdown has put into question whether the federal government will continue to fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in November. SNAP is one of the most important safety net programs in the United States, providing food assistance to 42.7 million people in an average month in 2024, at an annual cost of just over $100 billion. Policymakers often debate specific aspects of SNAP, such as the prudence of work requirements and sugary beverage restrictions, but hardly anyone has called for scrapping the program entirely.

SNAP benefits are currently paid entirely by the federal government, with funds delivered to states which then distribute the aid to families. But due to the ongoing shutdown, the Department of Agriculture has announced that they will not be able to transfer the necessary funds to the states for the month of November until the government reopens. Some have argued that the Department of Agriculture could utilize its stockpile of contingency funds to fund benefits, but the department has stated that they can only supplement already appropriated funds.

Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), I estimate the effect of suspending SNAP benefits in November on the number of people in poverty in the United States. The SIPP provides monthly data on families, their incomes, and participation in government programs. Relative to other frequently used surveys, it suffers from less misreporting of income and benefits. It is also the source for monthly poverty rates published by the Census Bureau.

I calculate the monthly poverty status of each individual based on whether their family’s income exceeds the monthly poverty threshold, calculated by the Census Bureau as the official annual poverty line for a family divided by 12. I use data from November 2023, which is from the most recent available year of SIPP data. I deviate from the official poverty measure definition by including the monthly value of SNAP as a component of income so that its suspension is able to affect poverty. A more comprehensive income measure would adjust for taxes and include the value of other in-kind transfers, though it would require certain assumptions such as how to distribute refundable tax credits to specific months within the year.

The table below reports the estimated number of people in poverty based on whether SNAP benefits are paid. If SNAP benefits are paid out as usual, then 38.3 million individuals would be poor. If SNAP benefits are not paid, then 41.2 million individuals would be poor, increasing the poverty population by 2.9 million. Among the 2.9 million individuals pushed into poverty, 1.1 million are children, 1.3 million are working age adults, and 0.5 million are adults aged 65 or older.

Effect of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Benefits on Number of People in Monthly Poverty, November 2023

It is important to note that even if benefit payments are missed due to an ongoing shutdown, it is possible that Congress would retroactively make the payments at a later date. However, an unexpected income shock would still likely have negative immediate impacts on families, especially among low-income families with little savings. It is also possible that some states will continue to pay benefits from their own funds, although it is unclear how many states would actually do so.

The effect of suspending SNAP in November would negatively impact even those beneficiaries who do not fall into poverty as a result of losing benefits. Already-poor SNAP recipients would fall even deeper into poverty, while those whose incomes who remain above the poverty line would still suffer a significant loss in resources.

Ending the federal shutdown and maintaining SNAP benefits would prevent substantial harm to tens of millions of low-income Americans who rely on the program.