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Commentary

COSM’s commentary page is home to timely analysis of pressing topics.

Perspective on the OBBBA’s SNAP Cuts

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will reduce federal spending for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) by $186.7 billion over the next 10 years. While these reductions are substantial, they require important context.

August 7, 2025 | By Angela Rachidi

Putting the CBO’s Estimates of SNAP’s Work Requirement into Context

Recent proposals to expand the work requirement in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have been almost universally portrayed as a punitive effort to push low-income recipients off the program. Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that over 3 million people will leave SNAP due to the work requirement expansions. However, it is…

June 24, 2025 | By Angela Rachidi

The Share of Medicaid Recipients in Compliance with the House Bill’s Community Engagement Requirement

The reconciliation proposal approved by the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2025 would impose community engagement requirements on nondisabled, working-age Medicaid recipients without dependent children, requiring at least 80 hours per month of work, training, education, or community service during a specified number of months to maintain eligibility. Analysis using Survey of Income and Program Participation data indicates that, as of December 2022, 44–60 percent of the 18.2 million recipients subject to the requirement would already be in compliance, depending on how many months of participation states require. As a result, 7.3 million–10.3 million recipients would need to increase their work or other qualifying activities to retain Medicaid coverage.

May 20, 2025 | By Kevin Corinth

The Case for Shifting More Welfare Costs to States

As part of Congressional Republicans’ drive to craft “one big beautiful bill” reflecting Donald Trump’s tax and spending agenda, the House Agriculture committee on May 14 approved several proposals that would reduce federal spending by shifting some current federal welfare costs to states. At the same time, dissatisfied conservative members…

May 19, 2025 | By Matt Weidinger

SNAP is About Nutrition: My Response to Zycher

In a recent blog post, my AEI colleague Benjamin Zycher took issue with a letter to the editor I published in the Wall Street Journal, in which I agreed with columnist Allysia Finley’s argument to place further restrictions on what Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) dollars can be used to…

May 2, 2025 | By Angela Rachidi

A Baby Bonus Is the Wrong Response to Declining Fertility

The Trump Administration is reportedly considering ways to reverse declining fertility in the United States, most notably a $5,000 “baby bonus” for any mother who gives birth. The administration is right to worry about the fertility rate, which has been on a steady decline since 2007 to the point where…

April 25, 2025 | By Kevin Corinth

In Case of Emergency, Open Block Grant: Part 2

Congress’s efforts to produce “one big, beautiful bill” that reflects President Donald Trump’s tax and spending priorities is about to kick into high gear as the House and Senate turn to crafting their respective reconciliation bills. Yet one key source of contention between House and Senate Republicans remains the amount…

April 23, 2025 | By Matt Weidinger and Angela Rachidi

In Case of Emergency, Open Block Grant: Part 1

Congress’s efforts to produce “one big, beautiful bill” that reflects President Donald Trump’s tax and spending priorities is about to kick into high gear as the House and Senate turn to crafting their respective reconciliation bills. Yet one key source of contention between House and Senate Republicans remains the amount…

April 23, 2025 | By Matt Weidinger and Angela Rachidi

Is There Really Pent-Up Demand for Ten Times the Manufacturing Jobs We Have?

Data analysis is hard. Admittedly, the consequences of getting it wrong are less severe than a botched surgery. But you still want to be very careful. It’s all too easy for a misinterpretation of the facts to harm important policy debates. For an example, look no further than the debate…

April 15, 2025 | By Scott Winship

A Model for Effective and Reasonable Work Requirements

As Congress considers instituting work requirements to maintain eligibility for Medicaid, it is illustrative to examine an effective model for how such requirements have been implemented in New York City to maintain eligibility for the federal cash welfare program Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF).  Proposals to mandate work requirements…

March 4, 2025 | By Scott Wetzler and Anthony Coles

Comment on Proposed Rule Establishing Flexibility for Implementation of Work Requirements and Term Limits in Federal Housing Assistance Programs

May 1, 2026 | Kevin Corinth

Overview  The United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) posted a notice of proposed rulemaking on March 2, 2026 (Docket No. FR-6520-P-01), entitled, “Establishing Flexibility for Implementation of Work Requirements and Term Limits,” hereafter the “Proposed Rule.” The Proposed Rule would allow, but not require, eligible Public Housing...

Chicago’s “Disappearing Middle Class” Can Be Found in Its Proliferating Upper Middle-Class Neighborhoods

April 30, 2026 | Scott Winship

In a recent  with Stephen Rose, I argued that the narrative of a “shrinking middle class” was based on a kernel of truth, but one that undermines economic pessimism. We showed that while 36 percent of families were part of what we called the “core middle class” in 1979, the share...

How Policy and Demographics Are Reshaping SNAP: From Families with Children to Older Adults

April 29, 2026 | Angela Rachidi

Abstract The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has grown substantially since the turn of the century, providing food assistance to more than 40 million individuals per month in recent years. Using data from the SNAP Quality Control dataset, I analyzed changes in SNAP households and participants from fiscal year (FY)...

Understanding the Recent Declines in SNAP Participation

April 28, 2026 | Angela Rachidi

The number of people receiving food assistance through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has declined in recent months, with suggestions that declines are due to the Republican-backed reconciliation bill passed in July 2025. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA or P.L. 119-21) made several changes to SNAP, including...