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May 7, 2025
Did ‘China Shock’ Throw Millions of Americans Out of Work?
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that “3.7 million Americans lost their jobs” due to the “China Shock”—the increased import competition occurring after China was granted membership in the World Trade Organization. He cites research by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, linking to two of their papers. But it appears…
February 20, 2025
The American Dream Is Not a Coin Flip, and Wages Have Not Stagnated
In my last column, I showed that Americans’ assessments of the economy have tracked the official unemployment rate well over the long run. That is important because it suggests that both public opinion and objective measures indicate that the labor market is historically strong (though accelerating inflation during and after the COVID-19 pandemic has caused these…
January 16, 2025
Should We Believe the Economic Data or Americans’ “Lyin’” Eyes? The Answer Is Yes.
Many Americans are convinced the economy is ailing and that life is financially tougher today than a decade—or a generation—ago. Social media posts wax nostalgic for a long-lost era when all single breadwinners allegedly could afford a home and two cars for a family of four. Everyone seemingly knows someone who did everything they were…
December 20, 2024
Fixing Inflation, Right-Sizing the Federal Government
Thirty years ago next month, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan testified before a joint session of the House and Senate Budget Committees with talk of deficit reduction in the air. In January 1995, Republicans had just won control of both houses for the first time in 42 years. The federal debt had reached 48…
May 30, 2024
The Truth about Trends in Worker Pay
Time was, only progressives made outlandish claims such as that hourly wages have been stagnant for more than half a century. But with the rise of populism on the right, “doomerism” now transcends ideology. It’s the national-conservative group American Compass that is now saying that the typical worker makes only 1 percent more today than he…
June 21, 2023
The Bad Math Behind Economic Doomerism
It’s a big week for American Compass, a think tank founded in 2020 that fancies itself as the “pre-eminent alternative to the Old Right’s market fundamentalism.” On the heels of its new policy book, Rebuilding American Capitalism, it hosts an event on Capitol Hill today with multiple Republican senators. It’s the latest sign of the intellectual confusion afflicting…
June 14, 2023
Better Data Means Better Policy
“Did you adjust for inflation?” An occupational inconvenience of doing economic research is that you are routinely asked by disbelieving non-researchers whether your numbers have taken into account the rising cost of living. The answer to that question is nearly always, “Yes.” The debates among researchers are about how to adjust earnings and income for inflation, and…