All Research
Article
Fiscal and Economic Effects of Tariffs
…dollar value per imported good, or as a tariff-rate quota, which applies tax when the value of certain imports exceeds a certain threshold (Pomerleau and York 2025). Like all taxes,…
Blog Post
Tariffs Cannot Fully Replace the Income Tax
During his State of the Union Address, President Donald Trump restated his desire to replace income taxes with tariffs. “As time goes by, I believe the tariffs paid for by foreign countries…
Commentary
The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit Should Not Subsidize Stay-at-Home Parents
…by Kyle Pomerleau and here by Alan Viard. The Republican Study Committee proposal would increase the gap in taxes paid between married parent families with two workers relative to those…
Blog Post
Last Year’s Income Tax Cuts and This Year’s Tax Refunds
Many taxpayers will get a tax windfall this year. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OB3), which was signed into law in July 2025, retroactively cut individual income taxes to…
Op-Ed
A Tax-Reform Alternative to Trump’s Tariffs
The Supreme Court will hear arguments next month about the legality of President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on nearly all imports to…
Op-Ed
The Looming Debt Crisis, the Trump Tax Cuts, and Medicaid
…Kyle Pomerleau, along with Donald Schneider, has proposed a revenue-neutral way to extend most of those earlier cuts while strengthening the boost to growth. Doing so would obviate the need to find…
Blog Post
The Family First Act Would Expand Net Income Tax Refunds to Higher Income Families
…by Kyle Pomerleau. The Family First Act would reduce tax liabilities among tax filers who pay federal income taxes by $36.2 billion, and increase spending to filers who do not…
Blog Post
Dueling Child Tax Credit Proposals: Harris vs. Vance
JD Vance and Kamala Harris have at least one thing in common: proposals to expand the child tax credit (CTC). Currently, the CTC offers households up to $2,000 per child…
Op-Ed
Presidential Candidates’ Dueling Child Credit Expansions Explained
The Trump-Vance and Harris-Walz presidential campaigns have each recently proposed large expansions to the child tax credit (CTC). Both proposals might be intended to appeal to similar voters, but they…
Commentary
Another Flawed Analysis Shows that Single Mothers are Highly Sensitive to Changes in Work Incentives
…the work effect would be small without any empirical analysis (Airi and Buhl, 2024) (Pomerleau, 2024). The last source Bastian cites is an analysis of the revenue effects of the…
Commentary
The Wyden-Smith Child Tax Credit and Work: Responding to Critics
…$15,000 again. As we explained and modelled in our analysis, and as our colleague, Kyle Pomerleau, has also explained, the look-back provision will make working more attractive to some families…
Op-Ed
A Carbon Tax to Finance Child Tax Credit Expansion
A carbon tax is considered by most economists to be the most efficient and effective way to reduce carbon emissions. However, a long-standing political challenge to a carbon tax is…