All Research
Op-Ed
There Are Many Reasons to Cheer Up About the State of the Middle Class
This piece originally appeared at National Review Online and is reprinted here with permission. Statistics show that the middle class is healthier and more secure than ever before. This week, Michael…
Op-ed
Compiling My Work on Work Incentives
…(May, 2014) https://web.archive.org/web/20160911165338/http://conservativereform.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Room-To-Grow.pdf “Would a Block-Granted Safety Net Mean Less Aid to Families?” Forbes.com (July 31, 2014) https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottwinship/2014/07/31/would-a-block-granted-safety-net-mean-less-aid-to-families/ “Will Welfare Reform Increase Upward Mobility?” Forbes.com (March 26, 2015) https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottwinship/2015/03/26/will-welfare-reform-increase-upward-mobility/ “Welfare…
Commentary
Opportunity Book: A New Tool for Connecting Policymakers with Innovative Ideas
Today the Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is releasing Opportunity Book, a new online tool that connects policymakers, journalists, and researchers with innovative…
Report
Re-Centering Family Structure in Opportunity Insights’ Work on Intergenerational Mobility: How Important Is Single Parenthood?
ABSTRACT Over the past decade, Opportunity Insights (OI) has transformed the study of intergenerational mobility through innovative uses of administrative data, reshaping the public and scholarly understanding of the factors…
Commentary
Young Men’s Earnings over the Long Run – An Update
Let me start with the chart: Median pre-tax earnings of men ages 25-29 rose 24 percent ($10,800) from 1973 to 2024, and median post-tax compensation rose 40 percent ($15,500). The…
Report
The Middle Class Is Shrinking Because of a Booming Upper-Middle Class
Abstract Populists on both the political left and right routinely claim that the middle class has been hollowed out. These claims, to the extent they are based on evidence, rely…
Op-Ed
Work Requirements For Medicaid Could Increase Income and Reduce Poverty
New Congressional Budget Office figures last week indicate that the reconciliation bill passed by the House and under review in the Senate would reduce annual income among the poorest households by…
Op-Ed
Did ‘China Shock’ Throw Millions of Americans Out of Work?
…uses a measure of total employment from Scott Winship, “America Is Still Working,” updated to 2024. (See end note 5 from that paper.) For 1939-2024, the manufacturing employment measure is from…
Report
You Autor Know
Along with many other controversial issues in 2025, Americans are at odds over the merits of tariffs. Underlying this debate is a more specific one—the impact of increased trade with…
Commentary
Is There Really Pent-Up Demand for Ten Times the Manufacturing Jobs We Have?
Data analysis is hard. Admittedly, the consequences of getting it wrong are less severe than a botched surgery. But you still want to be very careful. It’s all too easy…
Op-Ed
The Looming Debt Crisis, the Trump Tax Cuts, and Medicaid
Let’s start with a chart to understand the dire fiscal situation we are in as a nation. Figure 1. Federal Debt Held by the Public as a Share of Gross…
Op-Ed
The American Dream Is Not a Coin Flip, and Wages Have Not Stagnated
…Hell, Robert Manduca, Jimmy Narang, “The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940.” Replication files available at https://opportunityinsights.org/data/?geographic_level=0&topic=0&paper_id=546#resource-listing. MACPI is from Scott Winship, “Introducing the More Accurate Consumer…